Waiting for write-in vote count
The May 16 primary was a week ago, but not all of the ballots are settled for November.
On Friday, Lehigh and Northampton counties began counting write-in votes. A look up and down the ballots in both counties shows dozens of races with write-in votes tallied but not broken down by candidate or winner.
While results could be posted as early as today, a looming question is who got the 2,118 write-in votes for the GOP ballot in the Northampton County district attorney race?
Incumbent Democrat Terry Houck, who lost the Democratic primary to retired judge Stephen Baratta, mounted a GOP write-in campaign. But that doesn’t mean all those votes went to him. Baratta, who defeated Houck with 54% on the Democratic ballot, could be among the write-ins as well.
Meanwhile, the Republican write-in tally in Northampton County Council’s District 2 shows 299 votes. Kerry Myers, president of county council who was removed from the Democratic ballot over invalid signatures, switched to the Republican Party and mounted a write-in campaign.
New groups show some sway
The May 16 primary saw two budding organizations demonstrate political clout with endorsement wins.
Moms for Liberty - Northampton County backed eight Republican school board candidates and saw four win spots on the Republican ballot.
The progressive group Lehigh Valley Stands Up promoted nine Democrats and saw five win ballot Democratic nods.
Moms for Liberty - Northampton is a local chapter of a national parental rights group that grew out of the anti-mask movement.
Members of the Northampton chapter have urged the Nazareth Area School Board to adopt family and parent first policies such as those passed in the Central Bucks School District on restricting books with sexual content and setting up a process for book removals.
Moms for Liberty – Northampton County backed two candidates who won in Region 1 in the Nazareth Area School District – Elmo L. Frey Jr. and Melinda Gladstone. Another one of their winners was Cindy O’Brien, who picked up two Republican nominations, one for an at-large seat and another for the Region III seat in the Bethlehem Area School District. And Northampton Area School Board candidate William G. Jones Jr. won the Republican nomination in Region 2.
Endorsed candidates who didn’t win were Thomas McElroy in Nazareth Area, A.J. Maniscalco in the Northampton Area School, Debra Mouisett in the Pen Argyl Area School District and Annelle DiSanto in Wilson Area.
Lehigh Valley Stands Up is part of Pennsylvania Stands Up, which says it “aims to stand firm against leaders who tried to divide us by the color of our skin, by our immigration status, by the way that we worship.”
Winners on the Democratic ballot backed by Lehigh Valley Stands Up included Jon Irons, who is making his first run for Lehigh County commissioner; Shanta Ford, another newcomer running for East Penn School Board; Ce-Ce Gerlach, an incumbent Allentown City council member who was the top vote-getter among seven candidates; Tara Zrinksi, a Northampton County commissioner who won the Democratic nod for controller; and Frank Pintabone, a former Easton Area School Board member who won a nomination for Easton City Council.
Endorsed candidates who didn’t win were Allentown City Council candidates Rodney Bushe and Sarina Torres, Palmer Township supervisor candidate Baron Vanderburg and Lehigh County commissioner candidate Michael Blichar Jr.
Incumbent school board members struggled
This year’s class of school board incumbents stands out from others in years past.
Elected in November 2019, they weathered the worst of the coronavirus pandemic and the criticism directed at them at board meetings.
Many bowed out altogether from running for reelection in a year where most districts have five open seats on their nine-member boards.
In Southern Lehigh, only Republican Emily Gehman sought another term. Ditto for Republican Gregory C. Leh in Nazareth Area. Only two incumbents – Democrats Lauren Cieslak and Jillian Emert – ran in the May 16 primary in Catasauqua Area and they were the only candidates on either ballot.
Of the incumbents who sought reelection, Republicans had a rough time winning on their own ticket.
That was thanks to GOP challengers who criticized them for pandemic-related closings and mask mandates, rising taxes, a perceived lack of transparency and, in some places, transgender bathroom policies. These candidates were propelled by a Republican electorate that historically leans farther to the right in primaries.
That was the case in Northampton Area with Michael Baird, who lost in Region 2 on the GOP ballot to Jones. Like many incumbent Republicans, Baird won on the Democratic ballot because many primary-voting Democrats, some of whom are left of center, selected incumbent Republicans.
One exception was Pen Argyl’s board President Lisa Hackman, a Republican who was unopposed in Region 1 for a four-year seat. She also defeated Democrat Thomas Knorr on the Democratic ballot for a two-year term.
Three Republican incumbents lost altogether and will be out of office in December. They are Toni Lynch and Zachary Miller in Bangor Area and Patrick Foose in Parkland, who shared many of the challengers’ platforms.
One Democrat lost on both ballots – Easton Area’s Edward Keegan, a former New Jersey school superintendent who fell to Michael Simonetta, the district’s former chief operating officer.
Meanwhile, Democratic incumbents who may have enjoyed cross-filing wins in the past due to name recognition failed altogether in gaining GOP nominations. Besides the Catasauqua Area Democrats, another exception was Laurel Erickson-Parsons, a pediatrician and mother of four who won on both ballots in Saucon Valley.
Fortunes could very well change for incumbents in November when independents and other third party voters will weigh in. They account for 86,950, or 18%, of the 457,946 registered voters in the Lehigh Valley.
Inside the numbers of Norco judge’s primary
Northampton County judicial candidates Republican Nancy Aaroe and Democrat Brian Panella won their respective party nominations in the primary and will square off again in the November election.
Panella won the Democratic primary 13,098-9,960, a victory margin of 3,138.
Aaroe won the GOP primary, 10,932-4,723, a margin of 6,209, nearly twice as much as Panella’s margin in the Democratic primary.
When combining totals, Aaroe had more votes (20,892) than Panella (17,821), according to unofficial county results.
Aaroe had a stronger showing among Democrats (43% of the Democratic vote) than Panella did among Republicans (30% of the GOP vote).
Republican and Democratic voters only were eligible to vote in the primary, where candidates for judge appeared on both ballots.
In the general election, turnout is typically higher among party voters. Another 40,000 county voters who are nonaffiliated or register with a minor party voters can vote in November.
In last week’s primary, 41,724 people cast ballots. In the 2021 general election in Northampton County, nearly 30,000 more votes were cast than in the primary that year.
The stakes are higher in the general election - win or go home - but the candidates’ strategy will be the same: Mobilize supporters to vote.
Primary voter turnout
Lehigh County reported that 22.5% of voters cast ballots, which included 106 ballots from nonpartisan voters in Whitehall Township, where a referendum question was on the ballot. In Northampton County, the percentage was slightly higher at 23.7%.
Turnout was similar to the 2021 primary – 23.2% for Lehigh, and nearly 21% in Northampton.
Democrats continued the trend of voitng by mail more than Republicans by at least a 3-1 margin.
Lehigh County
Total ballots: 44,689
Democrats: 25,126
Republicans: 19,457
Nonpartisan: 106
Election Day ballots: 28,467 (12,761 by Democrats; 15,673 by Republicans; 33 nonpartisan)
Mail-in ballots: 15,849 (12,162, Democrats; 3,628, Republicans; 59, nonpartisan)
Provisional: 373
Northampton County
Total ballots: 41,724
Demorats: 24,780
Republican: 16,944
Election Day ballots: 24,428 (11,094 by Democrats; 13,334 by Republicans)
Mail-in ballots: 17,296 (13,686 by Democrats; 3,610 by Republicans)
Provisional: 0