Harris-Trump contest attracts most attention but down-ballot races equally as important
Lehigh Valley voters can make a difference in the election
With nine weeks until the Nov. 5 election, much of the attention is focused on the presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
But there are other races on the ballot – for the U.S. House and Senate and state legislatures in Pennsylvania and elsewhere – that will help determine the political future for at least the next two years.
“The 2024 elections are the most consequential in recent memory because each house of Congress and each chamber of the Pennsylvania General Assembly is controlled by only a thin margin of Democrats or Republicans,” said John Kincaid, professor of government and public service at Lafayette College in Easton and director of the school’s Meyner Center for the Study of State and Local Government.
“Swings of only a few seats will change the party control of the U.S. House and Senate and Pennsylvania House and Senate,” he said.
Christopher Borick, political science professor at Allentown’s Muhlenberg College and director of its Institute of Public Opinion, pointed out Lehigh Valley’s important role in the election.
“Lehigh Valley voters will have an extraordinary say in who controls the White House, Senate, House of Representatives and the Pennsylvania Legislature,” he said. “While every presidential election year gets billed as the most important ever, I think the number of races that Lehigh Valley voters will have real choices in is extraordinary.”
Borick, who lives in Nazareth, cited his ballot as an example of the kinds of important choices voters have.
“From my state House district to the presidential race, I'm voting in highly contested races that will have a meaningful impact on which party controls the major government institutions at the state and federal levels.”
Consider the area’s two high-profile battles:
U.S. Rep. Susan Wild, the three-term Democratic incumbent, and Ryan Mackenzie, a 12-year Republican state representative, are vying to represent the 7th Congressional District. The race is considered a toss-up among political analysts. In winning a three-way primary in April, Mackenzie’s campaign was backed by nearly a half-million dollars in independent expenditures by the Koch-backed PAC, Americans for Prosperity Action. In Wild’s victory over Republican Lisa Scheller two years ago, candidate spending totaled $13.7 million, the most of any congressional race in the state. With support from independent PACs, spending for the 7th District seat reached $34 million. Expect similar spending this year as Republicans try to retain their majority in the House while Democrats look to seize control.
The state House contest to represent the 137th District is a rematch from 2020, when state Rep. Joe Emrick, a Republican from Upper Nazareth Township, defeated political novice Anna Thomas, a Democrat from Bethlehem Township, by only about 700 votes. This year, as Emrick seeks reelection to an eighth term, Thomas is running a strong campaign, having outraised Emrick by a more than 2-to-1 margin, according to campaign finance reports. Through May 13, the date of the most recent reports, Emrick had $143,000 available while Thomas had $392,000. Her campaign has been boosted by major contributions from national progressive PACs that contributed a total of $150,000 as well as support from the state House Democratic Campaign Committee with about $12,000 of campaign services. Democrats aim to maintain their majority in the House while Republicans are looking to regain control of the chamber.
And then there’s the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, seeking his fourth six-year term, vs. Republican Dave McCormick, a hedge fund executive who lost the GOP nomination by 950 votes to Dr. Mehmet Oz two years ago.
In the presidential contest, Pennsylvania is considered essential to a victory for Harris, the Democrat, or Trump, the Republican. Polls show an extremely close race, with the political data website 538 showing Harris holding a slim 1.2-point lead in an average of polling numbers.
Trump, in gaining the presidency over Hillary Clinton in 2016, won Pennsylvania, reversing a trend in which the state had voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since 2000. Northampton County mirrored the state during that period, but it also went for Trump in 2016.
In 2020, Joe Biden, a Scranton native, returned the state to the Democratic side, which gave him the necessary Electoral College votes to capture the presidency. He also flipped Northampton County back to a Democratic win.
That’s why Northampton has received attention from national media as a possible indicator of how the 2024 presidential election may go.
Voter turnout
Pennsylvania voter turnout in 2020 was 76.07%, according to state election figures, the highest since 1992, when 82.8% cast ballots when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush and Independent candidate Rioss Perot.
Both Kincaid and Borick expect voter turnout to be high this Election Day.
“The 2024 election turnout will probably be close to the 2020 level,” Kincaid said.
Borick added, “With so much at stake I do expect that turnout this fall will be strong by historical standards associated with presidential election years.”
Other Lehigh Valley contests
The Lehigh Valley has no state Senate elections this year but local voters will select several state House members.
131st District: Two-term incumbent Milou Mackenzie, a Republican from Lower Saucon Township and mother of congressional candidate Ryan Mackenzie, faces political newcomer Meriam Sabih, a Democrat from Upper Saucon Township.
138th District: Republican incumbent Ann Flood of Moore Township is seeking her third term against Democrat Jared Bitting of Bushkill Township, who is making his first run for office.
183rd District: Incumbent Republican Zachary Mako from Lehigh Township is seeking his fifth term in office against Democrat Joe Lenzi of Northampton, who is running for office for the first time.
187th District: Gary Day, a Republican, is seeking to fill the spot he held for 14 years before losing in the 2022 GOP primary to Ryan Mackenzie. Mackenzie, who had represented the 134th District, was shifted into the 187th because of redistricting. Mackenzie’s current run for Congress created an opening for Day to reclaim his former seat. Day, who landed a job in December 2022 with the state Senate as director of policy and district operations, faces Democrat Stefanie Rafes of Lower Macungie Township, a first-time candidate.
Three incumbents, all Democrats, are unopposed: Joshua Siegel of Allentown, 22nd District, who is seeking a second term; Steve Samuelson of Bethlehem, 135th District, seeking a 14th term; Robert Freeman of Easton, 136th District, seeking a 20th term.