Key Democratic wins in Lehigh Valley tied to messaging, voter turnout
Decisive Democratic wins in closely watched school board and county races in the Lehigh Valley were driven by an ardent strategy to turn out the vote and drive home a message that Democracy was at stake in the outcomes, leaders from both parties said.
It’s a winning strategy that Democrats plan to carry into next year when voters will elect a president, U.S. representatives, U.S. senators and state lawmakers.
“Our message was ‘avoid extremism,’” said Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee. “We had a lot of volunteers on the ground, we were getting the message out in a variety of ways and in the end it worked.”
McFarland said the message was backed by a concerted push to get people to vote, especially by mail – a tactic that Dean Browning, a Lehigh County Republican leader, said was probably the biggest factor in Tuesday’s election.
“To me it’s one word – turnout,” said Browning, who founded a political action committee called Common Sense Solutions that acted as a clearinghouse for funds raised for the Republican slate for the Parkland School Board race.
Matt Munsey, chair of the Northampton County Democratic Committee, said a combination of factors led to his party’s success not only at the county level but also at municipal and school board contests.
“I think we had a lot of really good candidates step up to start with. And we had a lot of the candidates work really hard on their own and some of them had teams of volunteers that helped them out. But then a lot of our [committee] teams were working in support of those candidates, getting the word out to voters,” he said.
The results
In contested races, unofficial results show Democrats claiming all four seats for Lehigh County county commissioner as well as the coroner and controller posts. Democrat Michelle Graupner, a clerk in the judicial records office, was elected clerk of judicial records in an uncontested race. Republicans won the district attorney and sheriff positions in uncontested races.
In Northampton, Democrats seized a county judicial race, three of four seats on county council to gain a 6-3 majority and the controller’s seat, unofficial results show. Democrat Stephen Baratta, a former Northampton County judge, was uncontested in his bid for district attorney after incumbent Terry Houck, a Democrat who won a Republican write-in campaign, left the race.
In Lehigh County, Democrats sweep commissioner, controller and coroner races
Northampton County Democrats appear to sweep key contests in Tuesday’s election
In three bellwether school board races, slates running under the Democratic banner in Parkland, East Penn and Southern Lehigh won all open seats.
Their victories came as they were outspent by Republican slates who received heavy financial lifting from Republican business leaders in the Lehigh Valley and Paul Martino, a Bucks venture capitalist who has been funding similar Republican slates himself or through his Back to School PA PAC.
Lehigh Valley business leaders donate heavily to Republican slates in East Penn, Parkland
A slate of four Democrats in Saucon Valley ousted four incumbents, giving only one win to an incumbent, who is a Democrat. Lower Saucon Township voters ousted incumbent Republicans as well.
Democrats in Bethlehem fended off a rare Republican challenge for three council seats, maintaining the party’s full control of the board. The Easton mayoral and council races were uncontested on Tuesday, posting party wins for Democrats there as well. In Whitehall, the mayoral race also went to a Democrat.
To be sure, Republicans did well in Republican dominated municipalities and school districts, posting sweeps in contested races in Bangor Area, Nazareth Area and Northern Lehigh. They also claimed an equal share of victories in places like Emmaus and Lower Nazareth Township.
Democratic strategy
Parkland, East Penn and Southern Lehigh all featured bipartisan slates of incumbents and newcomers who cross-filed but only won on the Democratic ballot. In all three districts, Republican incumbents were spurned by GOP voters in the primary as well as the Lehigh County Republican Committee.
The Republican slates featured newcomers whose political interest grew out of frustration over mandated mask policies and school closings during the coronavirus pandemic. Their platforms included parental rights, transparency, academic excellence and, in some cases, dissatisfaction with transgender policies and library book choices.
Some expressed such views in interviews, at forums, on social media posts and at school board meetings. In Southern Lehigh, a slate identifying members as “true Republicans” signed a pledge that, among other bullet points, said its first act would be to seek to change policies allowing transgender students to use restrooms aligning with their gender choice.
In Lehigh County, McFarland said the party identified the Republican candidates’ public stances early on and quickly began to tie them to an “extreme agenda” that threatened democracy. They did so as the Democratic slates stayed out of the fray. The move put Republican candidates on the defensive.
As evidence of what could happen if Republican slates were to win, McFarland said, volunteers would tell voters about the Central Bucks and Pennridge schools districts, where Republican-led boards have created turmoil for instituting book and other restrictions that critics feel are aimed at minority and LGBTQ students. (On Tuesday, Democrats won control of both boards. Martino’s wife Aarati was among the Republicans who lost in Central Bucks.)
“Most people love their school district,” McFarland said. “When you had some bad examples – Central Bucks, Pennridge – that threw people into a real fearful frenzy on what was coming.”
McFarland said the messaging was supported by a get-out-the vote campaign, especially through mail-in ballots. Democrats have greatly outnumbered Republicans in adopting the option that was first made available in the 2020 primary.
Voter turnout in Parkland, East Penn and Southern Lehigh surpassed Lehigh’s overall 30.08% turnout, according to Lehigh County. Upper Saucon District 1 saw a nearly 52% turnout while other Southern Lehigh voting districts posted more than a 40% turnout.
Large swatches of East Penn and Parkland voting districts saw similar high turnouts. Conversely, Allentown, where there were no big races to draw residents, had voting districts where less than 6% of the voters cast ballots.
In Northampton County, turnout in Hellertown and Lower Saucon Township, where there were competitive school board and township council contests over hot-button issues, exceeded the county rate of 32%. Turnout in Hellertown was around 34% while Lower Saucon saw turnout range from a low of 40.3 % to a high of 50.9% in its eight precincts.
In the Saucon Valley School Board race, the four Democratic candidates running together as the Saucon Choices for Change ousted four of the five incumbents. In the township, Democrats, including incumbent Priscilla deLeon, won the three available council seats while defeating two Republicans on council. The Democratic victories came amid dissatisfaction over the township ending a long-term relationship with the Hellertown Area Library, a dispute over a cooperative compost center and opposition to the Bethlehem Landfill’s expansion.
The school board and township council Democratic candidates formed a “very strong team,” Munsey said. “The candidates worked hard, both the school board candidates and overlapping with the Lower Saucon Township [candidates].”
He noted that bipartisan support contributed to the election of the school board and township candidates.
McFarland said the bipartisan makeup of the Democratic slates helped draw such support.
She said Parkland, East Penn and Southern Lehigh all had members of both parties, whose platforms included upholding reputations of academic excellence, being welcoming and inclusive to all students, having quality teachers and passing budgets that weigh the need for tax hikes with providing quality education.
“I think we got the message out that we wanted to protect our schools, protect public education,” McFarland said. “Remember, all of our slates were bipartisan and that spoke well.”
Republican view
Browning said he was surprised by Tuesday’s outcome but doesn’t think the ideological beliefs of candidates on either side was a big factor in Tuesday’s outcome.
“Candidates really don’t matter that much nor do issues,” Browning said. “It has come down to a turnout game.”
Browning said Democrats have done a good job of getting repeated messaging out to voters to apply to and vote by mail.
He said voting by mail provides a good monthslong opportunity to get people to fill out ballots and send them in. This is in contrast to Election Day where you have from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. to get people to the polls.
Democrats have been more willing to embrace the method, creating an opportunity to capture more voters who otherwise wouldn’t bother, he said. The sheer number of Democrats who turn in ballots overshadows Republicans, giving Democrats a head start on Election Day.
Browning, along with Lisa Scheller, who ran unsuccessfully twice for the 7th Congressional District seat, have created Win Again PAC to encourage reluctant GOP voters to adopt mail-in ballots.
Still, on the matter of messaging, Browning feels the “extremism” tag mischaracterized the Republican candidates’ positions. He said candidates who discussed school library books were not advocating for bans, but reasonable restrictions that are age appropriate. He said such messages appeal to infrequent voters who aren’t up on issues.
It’s a very easy tool for [Democrats] say, “If you don’t come out to vote these [Republican] candidates – they are going to ban books,’” he said.
Next year’s election
With a strategy that not only saw local wins, but also wins for state judicial posts, party take-over of the Virginia legislature and a referendum in Ohio adding abortion rights to its constitution, party leaders agree it’s one Democrats will continue next year.
“I do think we can take this momentum moving forward. “We will continue to fight MAGA extremism,” McFarland said, referring to the acronym for former President Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan.
She also believes that Democrats, who have been tepid toward incumbent President Biden due to his age, will start to coalesce around him and will vote for him next November.
To combat the momentum, Browning said the Republican Party will “need to spend less money on messaging and more money on turnout.”
When asked if the Republican Party is ready to do this, Browning said, “If they aren’t convinced after the results this year, I’m not sure they will ever be convinced.”