Lehigh Valley GOP narrows voter registration gap as both parties lose members
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap in the Lehigh Valley even as both parties lost members since last November.
Democrats hold a 43,174 voter edge in Lehigh and Northampton counties, down 5,362 since November 2022, a midterm election year, according to the voter registration data.
Overall, the two major political parties lost 8,766 members since last year, according to state data as of Oct. 30. Voter registration for the Nov. 7 election ended on Oct. 23. Totals could change as data comes in from counties.
Voter registration typically falls in municipal election years when municipal, county, judicial and school board races are held and there is no draw of state and federal candidates.
Turnout is usually down as well – coming in at 30.9% in Lehigh County and 32.5% in Northampton in 2021, the last municipal election. Turnout was more than 20 percentage points higher in November 2022 when Pennsylvanians elected a governor, state legislators, U.S. representatives and a U.S. senator.
Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said it’s not surprising that Democrats lost more ground this year.
Borick said the party in control of top elected positions – president and governor – tends to sag in voter registration in the aftermath of wins. Meanwhile, he said, the party out of power has the momentum to do better.
“This is kind of a phenomenon in American politics,” Borick said.
Borick said last year was an exception. In the final weeks of the fall election season, Democrats in the 7th Congressional District, where Democrat Susan Wild was re-elected, started gaining and ended up outpacing Republican registrations.
He said the cause was the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in June 2022 that gave states the right to decide on abortion. Borick said it motivated many young people to register to vote as Democrats.
Lehigh County registration
In Lehigh County, where 241,932 are on the rolls, the gap between Republicans and Democrats is 27,764, according to state data as of Oct. 30. Lehigh’s party gap compares to a 30,793 difference in 2022.
Lehigh numbers
Democrats: 111,755 (-3,446)
Republicans: 83,991 (-417)
Gap: 27,764 (-3,029)
A total of 111,755 Democrats were on the rolls in Lehigh County as of Oct. 30, a loss of 3,446 voters since November 2022.
Republicans had 83,991 registered voters in Lehigh County, a loss of 417 over November 2022.
Lehigh had 38,221 voters with no party affiliation and 7,965 voters registered to other parties as of Oct. 30. State historical data does not allow an exact comparison with last year’s numbers.
Combined they accounted for 46,186 – about 20% of the voters.
Northampton County registration
In Northampton County, where 218,905 are registered, the party registration gap was 15,410 on Oct. 31. That compares to 17,743 in 2022.
Northampton numbers
Democrats: 95,833 (-3,618)
Republicans: 80,423 (-1,285)
Gap: 15,410 (-3,500)
A total of 95,833 Democrats are registered, a loss of 3,618 over November 2022. Republicans numbered 80,423 voters, a loss of 1,285.
There were 31,991 voters with no party affiliation and 10,658 registered to other parties. At 42,649 voters, they, too, accounted for about 20% of all county voters.
Party switches
More people switched to the Republican party than to the Democratic party in 2023.
Lehigh County saw 922 Democrats and 637 “other” voters switch to the Republican Party since January, state data shows. A total of 385 Republicans and 615 “other” voters switched to the Democratic Party.
In Northampton, 680 Democrats and 557 “other” voters became Republicans while 318 and 452 “other” voters changed their registrations to become Democrats.
State numbers
Statewide, there were 3,899,957 registered Democrats versus 3,453,432 Republicans, a difference of 446,525.
Total registration stood at 8,653,415 on Oct. 30. There were 954,625 no affiliations and 345,401 registered to other parties, accounting for about 15% of all voters.
Statewide, 14,417 Republicans and 17,456 other voters switched to become Democrats while 31,683 Democrats and 18,583 others changed their affiliation to Republican, data shows.