Many moving parts lead to new Pa. House, Senate maps
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Many moving parts lead to new Pa. House, Senate maps
See who represents which districts in Lehigh Valley
Democrats across Pennsylvania are expected to make gains under the new state House and Senate maps, and the same holds true in the Lehigh Valley.
Under the plan approved by the Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission and reaffirmed by the state Supreme Court Wednesday, two Lehigh County incumbent Republicans are being pushed into the same House district, while a heavily Democratic House district with no incumbent was created. A third House Republican would find himself in the most politically divided district in the state.
Meanwhile, Democrats appear to have an advantage for a new Senate seat that crosses Lehigh and Northampton counties.
Under the state constitution, new maps must be drawn up by the commission every 10 years to reflect population shifts uncovered by the U.S. Census. The commission consists of the Republican and Democratic leaders of the House and Senate plus a neutral third party. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court appointed Mark Nordenberg, a law professor and administrator at the University of Pittsburgh, as the fifth member last year.
An analysis by Dave’s Redistricting, a website that follows the redistricting processes for all 50 states, found the proposed map creates 95 House districts that favor Democrats while 81 favor Republicans. The site identified another 27 districts as swing seats, meaning either party could control the House. The Senate map was more evenly divided with Democrats expected to carry 21 districts, Republicans likely to carry 20 and another nine swing districts up for grabs.
The changes reflect the party registration across Pennsylvania. Democrats hold a narrow lead, but not enough to shut out Republicans, who have won statewide races for president, the U.S. Senate, treasurer and auditor general in the last six years.
That didn’t stop conservatives from challenging the maps in court. Republicans, who have controlled both houses of the General Assembly for 20 years, attacked the map as unfairly favoring Democrats and called on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to throw it out. But Wednesday, the court, in a one-page order, said the House and Senate maps comply with the U.S. and state constitutions.
The court also set the calendar for the legislative primary and election, with candidates finally able to begin collecting signatures on nomination petitions on Friday and turn them in March 28. The primary date - May 17 - remains unchanged.
Here’s a breakdown of the Lehigh Valley’s three Senate districts and 11 House districts as proposed under the LRC maps.
Senate District 14
Incumbent: None
Municipalities: Lehigh County: Hanover, Salisbury and Whitehall Townships and Catasauqua, Coplay, Emmaus and Fountain Hill along with parts of South Whitehall Township and Allentown. Northampton County: Allen, Bushkill, East Allen, Hanover, Lehigh and Moore Townships and Bath, Chapman, North Catasauqua, Northampton and Walnutport.
Armchair Analysis: This is an entirely new district for the region. For the last decade, Route 22 practically split Northampton County between Senate District 18, which strongly favored Democrats, and Senate District 40, which leaned heavily Republican. Now, District 40 doesn’t enter the Lehigh Valley.
With Democratic bastions in Allentown and Whitehall Township, this looks like a Democratic safe haven - at least on paper. Republican challengers may hope conservative voters in northwestern Northampton County can carry the day given Allentown’s history of low voter turnout. Northampton County Commissioner Tara Zrinski, D - Hanover Township, is the only candidate to enter the race to date.
Senate District 16
Incumbent: Pat Browne, R - Allentown
Municipalities: Lehigh County: Heidelberg, Lower Macungie, Lower Milford, Lowhill, Lynn, North Whitehall, Upper Macungie, Upper Milford, Upper Saucon, Washington and Weisenberg townships, Alburtis, Coopersburg, Macungie and Slatington along with parts of South Whitehall Township and Allentown. Bucks County: Bedminster, Bridgeton, Durham, East Rockhill, Haycock, Hilltown, Milford, Nockamixon, Richland, Springfield, Tinicum and West Rockhill townships and Dublin, Perkasie, Quakertown, Richlandtown, Riegelsville, Sellersville, Silverdale and Trumbauersville along with the Bucks County portion of Telford.
Armchair Analysis: Dave’s Redistricting views the district as a swing seat that slightly favors Republicans. Still, it should be friendlier to Browne, the moderate chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee who has been in office since 2005. The new 16th sheds almost all of Allentown, keeping only the neighborhoods around his West End home.
Senate District 18
Incumbent: Lisa Boscola, D - Bethlehem Township
Municipalities: Bethlehem, Forks, Lower Mount Bethel, Lower Nazareth, Lower Saucon, Palmer, Plainfield, Upper Mount Bethel, Upper Nazareth, Washington, and Williams townships and Bangor, East Bangor, Easton, Freemansburg, Glendon, Hellertown, Nazareth, Pen Argyl, Portland, Roseto, Stockertown, Tatamy, West Easton, Wilson and Wind Gap in Northampton County. The district also includes all of Bethlehem.
Armchair Analysis: Boscola, who has held office since 1994, first as a state representative, denounced the new map as a “backroom assault on the Lehigh Valley.” Her district goes from a Democratic cakewalk to a swing district that leans blue, at least according to Dave’s Redistricting. Still, Boscola is the only state senator a generation of Northampton County voters have known, and she has a history of defying Democratic leadership and working with Republicans. Her record may appeal to voters on both sides of the aisle.
House District 22
Incumbent: None
Municipalities: Parts of Allentown and Salisbury Township
Armchair Analysis: Barring an epic scandal, this race will be decided in the Democratic primary for the next decade. Democrats make up nearly 70% of registered voters. Allentown City Councilman Joshua Siegel, a Democrat, has already announced his candidacy for the seat.
House District 131
Incumbent: Milou Mackenzie, R - Lower Saucon Township
Municipalities: Lehigh County: Lower Milford, Upper Milford and Upper Saucon townships and Coopersburg with part of Salisbury Township. Montgomery County: Marlborough, Salford and Upper Hanover townships and East Greenville, Green Lane, Pennsburg and Red Hill. Northampton County: Parts of Lower Saucon Township.
Armchair Analysis: Milou Mackenzie’s new district extends farther south into Montgomery County. The swing district favors Republicans, but not as much as her last one did, according to Dave’s Redistricting. Democrats viewed the district as vulnerable in 2020 when former Rep. Justin Simmons didn’t seek reelection. They’ll probably see it that way again in 2022.
House District 132
Incumbent: Michael Schlossberg, D - Allentown
Municipalities: South Whitehall and parts of Allentown and Upper Macungie Township
Armchair Analysis: Schlossberg’s old district, which covered the western half of Allentown, was incredibly safe for Democrats. His new one is only slightly tougher with a 15 percentage-point advantage for Democrats, according to Dave’s Redistricting.
House District 133
Incumbent: Jeanne McNeill, D - Whitehall Township
Municipalities: Catasauqua; Coplay; Fountain Hill; Hanover Township, Lehigh County and Whitehall Township plus the Lehigh County portion of Bethlehem.
Armchair Analysis: The district is mostly unchanged, swapping out parts of Salisbury Township for parts of Whitehall Township. It remains a safe district for Democrats.
House District 134
Incumbent: Peter Schweyer, D - Allentown
Municipalities: Emmaus and parts of Allentown and Salisbury Township
Armchair Analysis: The district remains heavily Democratic, but Schweyer, who has represented the current 22nd District for four terms, should heavily benefit from being shifted into the 134th. Political newcomer Enid Santiago nearly ousted him from the 22nd District in 2020 by appealing to the growing Latino community in Allentown’s Center City. The new map pushes many of those neighborhoods into the redrawn 22nd District, which should make the 134th District safer for Schweyer, a former Allentown city councilman.
House District 135
Incumbent: Steve Samuelson, D - Bethlehem
Municipalities: The Northampton County portion of Bethlehem and parts of Hanover Township, Northampton County
Armchair Analysis: The district is almost unchanged, swapping different parts of Hanover Township, Northampton County, in and out. Samuelson, who first won election to the state House in 1998, remains in one of the region’s safest Democratic bastions.
House District 136
Incumbent: Robert Freeman, D - Easton
Municipalities: Easton, Freemansburg, Glendon, Hellertown, West Easton, Wilson and Williams Township along with parts of Lower Saucon and Palmer townships
Armchair Analysis: Freeman has represented the Easton area for a total of 36 years. This new map, which heavily favors Democrats, is nearly identical to the one he’s dominated over that time.
House District 137
Incumbent: Joe Emrick, R - Upper Nazareth Township
Municipalities: Nazareth, Tatamy and Bethlehem, Lower Nazareth and Upper Nazareth townships along with portions of Hanover and Palmer townships.
Armchair Analysis: This is one of the most politically coveted pieces of real estate in the country. Vice President Kamala Harris visited the community in the final days of the 2020 election campaign, reflecting just how vital it is to the major parties.
The present 137th District is based around the Bangor Area School District, a Republican safe haven. Now, in seeking a seventh term, he’ll find himself in the toughest campaign of his life. Dave’s Redistricting pegs this as the most evenly contested district in the state; it gives Democrats a 0.7% edge here.
House District 138
Incumbent: Ann Flood, R - Moore Township
Municipalities: Bangor, Chapman, East Bangor, Pen Argyl, Portland, Roseto, Stockertown and Wind Gap and Bushkill, Forks, Lower Mount Bethel, Plainfield, Upper Mount Bethel and Washington townships with parts of Moore Township.
Armchair Analysis: Under the old map, the Slate Belt was divided between two different House districts. Now, it’s the bulk of the new 138th District. Flood will have to introduce herself to large swaths of the district, but she’ll be looking strong if she emerges from the Republican primary in this conservative stronghold.
House District 183
Incumbent: Zach Mako, R - Walnutport
Municipalities: Lehigh County: Lowhill Township, North Whitehall Township and Slatington. Northampton County: Bath, North Catasauqua, Northampton and Walnutport and Allen, East Allen and Lehigh townships along with parts of Moore Township.
Armchair Analysis: Mako’s existing district was the safest for Lehigh Valley Republicans over the last decade. His new district is even safer, favoring conservatives by more than 18 percentage points, according to Dave’s Redistricting.
House District 187
Incumbents: Gary Day, R - Heidelberg Township; Ryan Mackenzie, R - Lower Macungie Township
Municipalities: Heidelberg, Lower Macungie, Lynn, Washington and Weisenberg townships and Alburtis and Macungie along with parts of Upper Macungie Township.
Armchair Analysis: The 187th District should make for an interesting Republican primary as both men have told The Morning Call they will seek re-election. The population center for the new district is in Lower Macungie, the home turf of Mackenzie, who was first elected to the 134th District in 2012. However, Day won his first election in 2008, giving him the longer tenure representing Lehigh County. Dave’s Redistricting views the district as a swing district, but the GOP has an advantage of 9 percentage points.
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