Muhlenberg College poll shows link between political party and views on vaccines
The percentage of Pennsylvanians who think there is a link between childhood immunizations and autism has more than doubled since 2022 to 31%, according to a survey released Wednesday by Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
Nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats – 41% versus 21% – agreed “strongly” or “somewhat” that the chance of a child having autism rose if they received the recommended childhood immunizations, the survey found.
Autism, or autism spectrum disorder, refers to a range of conditions characterized by challenges with social skills, repetitive behaviors, speech and nonverbal communication, according to the Autism Speaks website.
According to the Centers for Disease Control, autism affects an estimated 1 in 31 children and 1 in 45 adults in the United States. On average, it is diagnosed around age 5 in the U.S., with signs appearing by age 2 or 3.
In 2010, the medical journal Lancet retracted a 1998 paper by Dr. Andrew Wakefield that made a link between autism and the measles vaccine. The retraction came the week Wakefield was found guilty by the General Medical Council in England of dishonesty and flouting ethics protocols.
Muhlenberg polled 521 adult residents of Pennsylvania between March 10 and March 26. Respondents were interviewed in English on landlines and cell phones. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 5.5% at a 95% level of confidence.
Christopher Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, called the jump in the percentage of people who believe there is a vaccine link “a salient finding.”
“About a third of adults in the state agree with the unfounded claim that childhood immunizations increase the likelihood of autism, a level that is the highest in the 13 years we have asked this question,” he said in an email.
Borick said the mostly likely cause in the jump is messaging from high profile public figures such as Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who are directly or indirectly suggesting the connection.
During a July 2023 interview on Fox News, Kennedy said, “I do believe that autism comes from vaccines.” He also has said parents should vaccinate their children if they choose to do so.
Earlier this month, Kennedy said he is launching a massive study to find the cause of the disorder by September, saying the cause could also be from “our food system, our water, our air, different ways of parenting.”
Scientists and public health experts have been critical of Kennedy’s views, saying the Wakefield paper that launched the anti-vaccine movement has long been debunked and that five months isn’t enough time to determine the cause of autism.
The Muhlenberg survey found 36% expressed “a lot” or “some” trust in Kennedy to handle health care issues while 51% expressed “not too much” or “no trust at all.”
Other findings in the survey show:
Women in Pennsylvania are almost twice as likely as men (42% to 22%) to report that politics and current events constitute a “major source” of stress in their lives.
15% of Republicans reported that politics and current events are a “major source” of stress, compared to 52% of Democrats, and 26% of self-identified independents.
21% of Pennsylvanians oppose the legalization of marijuana in the state, the lowest level of opposition since the question was first asked in 2013. In his 2025-26 budget plan, Gov Shapiro recommended legalizing the recreational use of marijuana in the state. The budget is being considered by the state Legislature.