Muhlenberg poll: Biden, Trump in dead heat in Pennsylvania
President Joe Biden is in a statistical dead heat with former President Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania – even as a majority of the state’s voters surveyed by Muhlenberg College disapprove of the job he is doing and don’t think he deserves reelection.
On the subject of abortion, the survey showed slightly more than half of Pennsylvania voters polled believe the state should not allow an abortion at 15 weeks or more into a pregnancy, according to findings released Tuesday by The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
Meanwhile, in a hypothetical presidential election matchup in the state between Democrat Josh Shapiro and Trump, the Pennsylvania governor would defeat the former president.
Views on Biden, Trump
According to key findings in the Muhlenberg College December 2023 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey:
Nearly 2 out of 3 (65%) of registered voters in Pennsylvania do not believe Biden deserves reelection for another term as president.
A majority (57%) disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.
Biden’s bid for a second term is undermined by voter views of his age with nearly 3 out of 4 voters in Pennsylvania agreeing that the 46th president is too old to serve another term.
Biden and Trump, the leading Republican challenger, are in a statistical dead heat (Biden 42%,Trump 41%) among registered voters in Pennsylvania if the election were held at this time. The result mirrors national polls. A February 2020 poll by Muhlenberg, which took place about seven months before the election, had Biden and Trump tied as well, that time at 47% each. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who was seeking the Democratic nomination in 2020, was ahead in that poll, 49% to Trump’s 46%.
In matchups with other prominent Republicans seeking their party’s presidential nomination next year, Biden narrowly outpaces Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 41% to 39%, while trailing former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 38% to 33%.
Trump’s path to regaining the presidency is complicated by views on his temperament, with nearly 7 in 10 Pennsylvania voters (68%) agreeing that Trump does not have the right temperament to be president.
Views on Gov. Josh Shapiro
In the year since he was elected as governor, Shapiro maintains solid ratings, with a majority (51%) approving of his work as the commonwealth’s chief executive. Comparatively, only about 1 in 5 (21%) Pennsylvania voters disapprove of his work leading the state.
In a hypothetical presidential election matchup in Pennsylvania between Shapiro and Trump, the governor holds an 11-point lead (48% to 37%) over the former president.
Views on abortion
A slim majority (52%) of Pennsylvania voters support the establishment of the right to an abortion in the state constitution, with 41% opposing this option.
Slightly more than half of Pennsylvania voters (53%) believe the state should not allow a legal abortion 15 weeks or more into a pregnancy. State law now allows abortions up to the 23rd week.
The poll was based on a telephone survey of 421 registered voters in Pennsylvania between Nov. 20 and Dec. 13. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (84) and cell phones (337). With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence.
The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion conducts scientific-based research related to public opinion at the local, state and national levels. Since its founding in 2001, the MCIPO has focused its attention on measuring the public’s views on electoral and public policy issues with a concentration on environmental and health matters.