The political winds in the 7th Congressional District race have shifted course, putting incumbent Democrat Susan Wild directly in stronger headwinds, thanks to a new Congressional map approved by the state Supreme Court on Feb. 23.
The 7th Congressional District had comprised all of Lehigh and Northampton counties as well as the following Monroe County municipalities: Eldred, Hamilton, Ross, Smithfield (Districts 02 and 03) and Stroud townships and the boroughs of Stroudsburg, East Stroudsburg and Delaware Water Gap.
With Monroe County leaning Democratic, the boundary lines — which resulted from a successful challenge in 2018 to Pennsylvania’s Congressional map as partisan gerrymandering — helped propel incumbent Democrat Susan Wild to her first and second victories in 2018 and 2020.
In the 7th district, the new map eliminates all but a small piece of Monroe County in the 7th. Only Eldred and Polk townships and about half of Ross Township remain.
Instead, the Republican stronghold of Carbon County, where Trump garnered nearly twice as many votes as Biden in 2020, has been added to the 7th.
As a result, FiveThirtyEight, a website that analyzes political data, moved the 7th from even in 2020 to leaning slightly Republican (Republican +4 advantage) for 2022. FiveThirtyEight still considers the district highly competitive.
FiveThirtyEight’s analysis found that of the Pennsylvania’s 17 districts, six lean Democratic, eight lean Republican and three are highly competitive. Besides the 7th District, the two other highly competitive races are in the 1st (primarily Bucks County, with incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick) and the 17th in western Pennsylvania (the district of Rep. Conor Lamb, who is not seeking reelection but is running in the Democratic primary for U.S, Senate).
Currently, Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation has nine Republicans and nine Democrats. The state lost one congressional district because of the 2020 U.S. census.
As such, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, labeled Wild as “the most vulnerable” of the four Pennsylvania women, all Democrats, who were first elected to the House in 2018.
In her 2020 matchup with Republican Lisa Scheller, Wild, who lives in South Whitehall Township, won by 3.8 percentage points with 51.9% to Scheller’s 48.1%. The vote difference was 14,068.
In the 2020 presidential election in Carbon County, Trump captured 21,984 votes to Biden’s 11,212.
However, Sabato’s analysis shows that Biden still would have won the new 7th District by a percentage point.
Against this backdrop, Scheller, a business owner and former chairperson of the Lehigh County Board of Commissioners who lives in Allentown, wants another go at defeating Wild.
But she’ll have to overcome a challenge from political newcomer Kevin Dellicker, a business owner from Heidelberg Township, Lehigh County, who has served in the National Guard.
Should she do that, Scheller could have an advantage beyond registered Republicans in Carbon. Silberline Manufacturing, the aluminum pigment company founded by her grandfather, is located near Hometown, Schuylkill County.
Scheller is chairman and CEO of Silberline, which is a quick car ride from Carbon. The company employs about 160 people in the region.
Dellicker, president, Dellicker Strategies, which provides technology services, lives on the northern edge of Lehigh County, near the border of Carbon.
In coming weeks, we’ll have more on this race, including bios of all three candidates. So stay tuned. But you can read their personal stories on their campaign websites: Wild, Scheller and Dellicker.