New F&M poll finds presidential race in Pennsylvania a toss up
A new poll by Franklin & Marshall College released today shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat in Pennsylvania with less than two weeks left in the presidential race.
The survey, conducted Oct. 9 to Oct. 20 by the college’s Center for Opinion Research, showed Trump, a Republican, with 49.6% of the vote and Harris, a Democrat, with 49.3% when likely voters are asked to choose between them.
Likely voters included those who said they were “certain” to vote (94%) and will probably vote (4%).
Harris leads 48% to 44%, among all registered voters surveyed, the poll found.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, the poll found a greatly narrowed contest with incumbent Democrat Bob Casey with 49% of the vote among likely voters versus Republican David McCormick’s 48%. Casey had a wider lead – 49% to 42% – among registered voters.
F&M POLLING RESULTS
Likely voters
Trump: 49.6%
Harris: 49.3%
Casey: 49%
McCormick: 48%Registered voters
Trump: 44%,
Harris: 48%
Casey: 49%
McCormick: 42%
The survey interviewed 794 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 351 Democrats, 326 Republicans, and 118 independents. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.3 percentage points, meaning the results can go either way in that margin. The sample error for likely voters is +/- 5.0 percentage points.
The difference in preferences among likely voters and registered voters was primarily due to the differences in the partisan, ideological and age profiles, the survey said.
The poll offers contrasts to F&M’s September poll which found Harris outpacing Trump 49% to 46% among registered voters and ahead 53% to Trump’s 46% among likely voters.
Berwood A. Yost, director of the college’s Center for Opinion Research, called the September results a “blip,” attributing Harris’ showing to a positive response to her September debate performance with Trump. August poll findings showed the race tied among likely voters.
Yost said McCormick is the one who is showing true gains, erasing a nine percentage-point deficit since August to a tied race. He attributed the gains to growing support for him among Republicans.
The tight presidential race comes as the survey said the electoral environment seems to offer more advantages to Republicans than Democrats.
Two in five (43%) respondents say they are “worse off” financially than a year ago, meaning voters are much less optimistic about their personal financial circumstances today than they were at the time of the last presidential election in 2020.
Pennsylvania voters are also more pessimistic than optimistic about conditions in the state with about half (48%) reporting the state is “off on the wrong track.” President Biden continues to receive low marks as president, with only one in three (34%) voters rating his performance as “excellent” or “good.” Concern about the economy (35%), including unemployment and higher gas and utility prices, continues as the most important and often mentioned problem facing the state.
Other findings showed:
One in five (20%) registered voters say illegal immigration has had a “very negative” impact on the community where they live. Two in five (39%) say illegal immigration has had “no impact” on their communities.
One in five (20%) registered voters believes that fracking has helped the economy in their local community “a great deal.” Less than one in 10 (7%) registered voters believes fracking has done “a great deal” of harm to the environment in the community where they live.
Overall, more of the state’s registered voters believe natural gas drilling has done more to help the state’s economy (51%) than to harm the state’s environment (33%).
Few (9%) of the state’s registered voters think abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. A majority (55%) believes the outcome of the presidential election will affect whether abortion is banned or severely limited in the state.