New poll: Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania in two ballot scenarios
Survey was conducted by Franklin & Marshall's Center for Opinion Reseach
Pennsylvania voters favored President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in two ballot scenarios in a new poll from Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research.
The poll, which was released on April 4, randomly divided 861 participating voters in half, giving each group member one of two scenarios.
In a head-to-head matchup between the Democratic president and the Republican Trump, Biden polled significantly higher with 48% choosing him, 38% picking Trump, 13% opting for “someone else” and 1% say they “do not know.”
It was a notable jump since the poll was conducted in February of this year when 43% of respondents chose Biden, 42% picked Trump and 12% chose “someone else.”
In a lineup that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Biden’s lead was lower with 42% of respondents choosing the president, 40% for Trump, 9% for Kennedy Jr. and 3% for Stein.
The poll was conducted between March 20 and 31 and included 390 Democrats, 356 Republicans and 124 independents. The sample error on the poll is +/- 4.0 percentage points, but is +/-5.7 percentage points for the presidential choice questions since half the respondents received each question.
In addition to the presidential race, the respondents were asked about the Gov. Josh Shapiro, the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican David McCormick, the economy, recreational marijuana and voting issues.
Biden and Trump
Biden’s approval rating in Pennsylvania remains about the same as previous Franklin & Marshall polls with 35% of respondents answering that Biden is doing a “good” or “excellent” job.
When asked about the age of both presidential candidates, 40% of voters believe Biden is too old to serve another term, while only 6% said Trump is too old. But 40% believe that both Biden and Trump are too old to serve. (Biden is 81 and Trump is 77).
The poll also found respondents said Biden is more “honest and trustworthy” but Trump was “most prepared to handle the economy.” On the issue of abortion, responses remained unchanged with 48% saying they shared Biden’s views versus 35% for Trump.
Casey-McCormick race
Casey holds a seven percentage-point lead over McCormick with 46% of respondents saying they would vote for Casey and 39% saying they would pick McCormick. There is no significant change from when the question was asked in February and October of 2023.
Casey’s approval rating among registered voters in the state increased slightly to 39%.
Shapiro
Shapiro’s approval ratings remained high among registered voters surveyed. More than half said the Democratic governor is doing an “excellent” or “very good” job. Shapiro is seeing “the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Governor [Tom] Ridge,” according to a Franklin & Marshall press release.
Pennsylvania and the economy
Overall, the poll shows Pennsylvanians are getting slightly more optimistic about where the state is headed. The percentage of those who say the state is “headed in the right direction” is 39%, which has increased from 35% in October.
A small number of respondents — 17% — said they are “better off financially,” and that number has continued to increase from 15% in February and 11% in October.
Recreational marijuana
More than three in five (62%) of those surveyed believe recreational marijuana should be legalized in the state, which is consistent with recent surveys. More (48%) favor selling legal marijuana through the state’s existing medical marijuana dispensaries than through state-run cannabis shops (29%).
Voting
Substantial majorities favor requiring county voting officials to contact voters if they find an error on a submitted ballot (77%), requiring photo IDs to vote (73%) and allowing for automatic voter registration (65%). A majority (50%) also favor allowing for pre-canvassing of mail-in ballots.
Two in five (40%) report being satisfied with the way democracy works in the United States, although nine in 10 (88%) believe democracy is preferable to any other form of government.