New poll that includes 7th District raises midterm concerns for Republicans
A new poll that included the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District is raising a caution flag for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.
According to the survey by Fabrizio Ward, which was commissioned by Elon Musk’s Building America’s Future, 59% of all voters, 53% of Trump voters and 61% of swing voters said they were worried about their personal financial situation with grocery prices being a major concern.
When it comes to tax breaks, 63% of all voters, 64% of Republican voters and 66% of swing voters ranked helping working class families as their top priority.
Meanwhile, 45% of those surveyed said they would be more likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress versus 41% for a Republican. When it comes to President Donald Trump, 47% approved of the job he is doing versus 49% who disapproved.
“Personal economic issues, especially the cost of living like groceries and health care, are top on the minds of voters in the most competitive Congressional Districts,” according to a Feb. 14 memorandum written by pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward.
“Currently, the survey has the generic Democrat winning by 5-points, so the Republicans have to play catch-up,” Fabrizio and Ward wrote.
The firm Fabrizio Ward polled 1,000 registered voters Feb. 11-13 across 18 Congressional districts that were rated by the Cook Political Report as toss-ups in the upcoming midterms.
The 7th, which includes all of Northampton, Lehigh and Carbon counties and a tiny portion of Monroe County, is represented by Republican Ryan Mackenzie, a former state representative who ousted three-term Democrat Susan Wild in November.
The only other Pennsylvania district included in the poll was the 10th, which is represented by longtime incumbent Republican Scott Perry.
Cook rated both of the Pennsylvania districts as a “Republican toss up” for 2026.
The survey comes as the inflation rate inched up slightly to 3% in January, with the price of eggs – a symbol of voter frustration in the presidential election – rising 15% due to the euthanization of flocks infected with the bird flu.
In addition, the Republican-controlled Congress is in the midst of budget negotiations that include the possibility of extending tax cuts enacted in 2017 under Trump’s first administration.
The survey asked a series of questions about financial worries and support or opposition to tax cuts. The survey did not separate results for Democrats. Swing voters were defined as those who don’t typically vote straight party tickets.
The ability to pay for groceries emerged as the greatest financial worry for 69% of all voters, 65% of Republicans and 72% of swing voters, putting it above expenses such as health care (67% all, 61% Trump and 69% swing), taxes (63%, 65% and 65% respectively), utilities (63%, 60% and 66%), gas (60%, 57% and 62%) and housing (56%, 49% and 60%).
Respondents had high support for extending the tax credit that allows working families to pay for health insurance premiums (80% all voters and 78% each for Trump voters and swing voters) and extending the child tax credit (75% all, 71% Trump and 70% swing).
One percent of all voters, 3% of Republicans and 1% of swing voters listed helping high-income earners as their top priority.
Extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts got mixed support with 51% of all voters supporting the idea, 82% of Republicans and 48% of swing voters. Reducing the corporate tax rate drew the highest support from Republicans (54%) but low support from all voters (34%) and swing voters (30%).
What it means
Berwood Yost, the director of the Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College, said it’s hard to tell how Pennsylvanians feel on these issues due to the small size of the sampling.
He also cautioned that the poll’s backing by Musk’s nonprofit group means it does not have a “disinterested perspective.”
“Still, the poll suggests a difficult environment for Rs [Republicans] in competitive districts and the primacy of the economy,” he said in an email.
In their memorandum, Fabrizio and Ward said Republicans should take note of the high support for extending tax credits that help families to afford health care premiums bought directly.
They said it “can significantly help Republicans, currently behind in these key districts, to win in the 2026 midterm elections.”
Fabrizio and Ward also said the poll showed some positives for Republicans in the districts surveyed.
“One advantage the Republicans in Congress have in these districts is that they are less negatively viewed than the Democrats in Congress,” their memorandum said.
Eight of the districts surveyed are held by Republicans (including four freshmen) and 10 held by Democrats (with three freshmen).
Fabrizio and Ward also said while the 18 races are toss-ups, the Democrats who won their races did so by 0.2 points while Trump won their districts by 2.8 points.
Mackenzie’s response
Armchair Lehigh Valley reached out to Mackenzie about the survey and his stand on current budget negotiations.
The Senate is pursuing a budget with a $150 billion increase in military spending and $175 billion more for border security over the next decade. Any tax or spending cuts would be addressed in the future, according to media reports.
The House is looking at an all-encompassing plan that would cut spending to pay for tax cuts. Trump has said he does not want Social Security or Medicare touched. Some House Republicans are looking at limiting Medicaid payments to states, according to media reports.
"As specific legislative language is introduced, I will carefully consider the specific details and what it means for everyone in our community," Mackenzie said in an email.
Mackenzie said his immediate priority is “avoiding a giant tax increase on the American people, which is what will happen if provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are not extended.”
He further said he is looking for other ways to help working families.
"As America emerges from the worst inflation in decades, it’s critical that we find ways to reduce costs. One way to do that is by offering targeted tax relief to some of those who have been hardest hit by the price increases, as I’m working to do with the bills that I have introduced to reduce costs for working families,” he said.
Last week, Mackenzie introduced bills that would expand the paid family and medical leave tax credit to encourage businesses to offer family leave, double child and dependent tax credits to offset child care costs, more than double the child tax credit to $5,000 and raise the adoption tax credit by nearly $9,000 to $25,000.
Mackenzie said another way to help working families is to “significantly reduce energy costs for individuals and businesses by fully embracing American energy, as Congress is currently working to do. This will reduce household energy costs and many of the input costs for goods and services.”
Methodology
Other districts in the poll were Arizona’s 1st and 6th, California’s 13th and 45th, Colorado’s 8th, Iowa’s 1st, Maine’s 2nd, Michigan’s 7th, North Carolina’s 1st, Nebraska’s 2nd, New Mexico’s 2nd, New York’s 4th, Ohio’s 9th and 13th, Texas’ 34th and Washington’s 3rd.
The survey was conducted via a mixed mode of interviewing, including 25% of interviews conducted by live interviewer calling landline phones, 35% live interviewer calling cell phones, and 40% of the interviews conducted online via text-to-web. The sample was sourced from the voter lists in these districts.
The interviews were spread evenly across the districts. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1% at the 95% confidence level. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and recalled 2024 vote to match registered voter targets based on voter file data, Census data, and 2024 election results.