Republican poll shows Wild slightly ahead of Mackenzie in 7th Congressional District
An internal Republican poll shows incumbent Democrat Susan Wild with a two percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th Congressional District race.
The poll by The Tarrance Group, a Virginia-based Republican strategic research and polling firm, showed Wild with 47% of the vote from likely voters versus Mackenzie’s 45%. Eight percent were undecided between the candidates.
The same poll found former President Donald Trump ahead of his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, with the same point-percentage difference – 48% to 46%.
The poll surveyed 404 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District and was conducted July 21-24, according to the website fivethirtyeight.
July 21 is the same day Biden announced he would not seek reelection, throwing his support behind Harris.
The poll’s margin of error on both races was +/-4.9%.
The poll was co-commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Mackenzie, who is a state representative in the 187th House District.
Fivethirtyeight described the poll as a partisan-led effort. Such polling is sometimes viewed as having an inherent bias.
In a summary, the Tarrance Group said, the survey indicates “there is still room for Mackenzie to grow his support among those voting for Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.”
The summary described support for Wild as “soft” based on responses that showed 25% of the those surveyed said they “strongly approve” of the job she is doing.
When asked about the survey, Mackenzie’s campaign issued a statement saying, “The poll shows a close race, but it also explains why Susan Wild is desperately deploying dishonest and negative campaigning in an effort to distract voters from her radical, extreme voting record.”
The Wild campaign responded to the poll with a statement that said, “The best news Mackenzie's campaign can highlight is a poll that shows he is losing. Mackenzie is an extreme anti-abortion politician who tried to subvert the results of the 2020 election, and even as he tries to run from his record, voters will not be fooled.”
The 7th Congressional District covers all of Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties and a tiny portion of Monroe County.
Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, rate the 7th District as a toss-up, the same rating given in Wild’s 2022 successful race against Republican Lisa Scheller where she captured about 51% of the vote.
The latest filings with the Federal Election Commission showed Wild with 10 times the amount of cash on hand as Mackenzie as of June 30.
Meanwhile, Mackenzie is benefiting from opposition spending by the American Action Network, which is targeting Wild with $1.5 million in advertising over immigration.