Republicans slice into Democrats’ voter registration lead in 7th Congressional District
Trend could be trouble for incumbent Democrat Rep. Susan Wild
The Blue Wave of 2018 has crested and receded, and Republicans hope to ride a conservative tide to victory when voters head to the polls this November.
Midterm elections cycles like 2022 generally see the party that lost the previous presidential race make gains in national, state and local contests. Members of the party out of power become motivated by their defeat while members of the party in power often see their enthusiasm wane when the realities of governing complicate their election promises.
Coming on the heels of Donald Trump’s improbable presidential victory in 2016, Democrats saw an unusually strong bounce back in 2018 as outraged critics organized and ran for office. The same thing happened in 2010 when the Tea Party faction of the GOP rose to power following Barack Obama’s election to the White House.
With President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, conservatives expect to make gains in the House and Senate this year. With inflation soaring and memories of America’s chaotic departure from Afghanistan still fresh, the president’s average approval rating has sagged to just under 42% as of Thursday, according to the political data website FiveThirtyEight.com.
Local party registration figures suggest midterm trends remain as true as ever. Since 2018, Republicans have cut into the Democrats’ registration lead in Lehigh, Northampton and Monroe counties. In Carbon, the GOP has gone from a near 50-50 split with Democrats to a lead of more than 5,300 voters. According to registration statistics Pennsylvania released Monday:
In Lehigh County, Democrats picked up 739 voters compared to four years ago. Republicans, however, grew by 3,416.
In Northampton County, Republicans’ numbers swelled by 6,063 compared to just 1,292 for Democrats.
The number of Monroe County registered Republicans grew by 2,861. The Democratic numbers in the county saw just a modest increase of 743.
The differences are even more extreme in Carbon County, where Democrats have 2,329 fewer voters than they did in 2018. Republicans have gained more than Democrats have lost over that same time span, adding 2,421 registered voters.
While this is bad news for Democrats in general, it could prove disastrous to Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild. With Congress narrowly split, both major parties have vowed to invest heavily in her battleground district this cycle. Republicans Lisa Scheller, a former Lehigh County commissioner, and Kevin Dellicker, a former National Guard intelligence officer, will compete in the May 17 primary for a chance to unseat her.
Wild defeated Scheller in the 2020 election by a little over 14,000 votes, a margin of about 3.7%, but that race came amid the contentious 2020 presidential race. Trump endorsed Scheller during the campaign, but it’s unclear how much that helped considering Trump’s falling approval ratings. Since then, the district has grown more conservative by swapping out parts of Monroe County, which were Democrat friendly, for increasingly conservative Carbon County.
While Democrats theoretically hold a numerical advantage in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, the large numbers of independent voters will likely close the gap. The newsletter Cook Political Report, conservative polling company Rasmussen Reports and FiveThirtyEight have all labeled the district as a toss-up. Cook pegged it as favoring Republicans by two points; FiveThirtyEight believes it leans Republican by four points.
Registered voters in Carbon, Lehigh and Northampton counties
Democrats: 227,204
Republicans: 183,452
No affiliation: 71,771
Other: 22,006
Total: 504,443Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District includes these three counties plus a small portion of Monroe County. State statistics on the Monroe County portion of the district were not available on the Pennsylvania Department of State website.
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