Shapiro, passed over for VP, has solid political future
Shapiro, passed over for VP, has solid political future
Lehigh Valley Democrats enthused by Walz as their veep candidate
As Lehigh Valley Democrats praised Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate on Tuesday, party leaders and others agreed that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's time on the national stage is far from over.
Shapiro was among Harris’ top choices for her second-in-command, notably for his centrist take on politics and widespread popularity in a state with 19 electoral votes up for grabs.
As an also-ran in the VP race, Shapiro has helped more than harmed his future, political observers said.
“Despite not getting the nod, Shapiro has lots of opportunities ahead and if Harris is not successful this fall he immediately becomes a 2028 frontrunner,” said Chris Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown and director of the school’s Institute of Public Opinion.
“Notably we have only seen one vice president immediately get elected from that position in modern history (Bush in 1988). Thus if it is the presidency he ultimately wants not getting the VP nod may advantage that goal,” Borick said in an email.
Among Democrats supporting Harris’ selection was U.S. Rep. Susan Wild, who is seeking reelection to a fourth term in Congress from the 7th District.
In a statement praising Walz, she mentioned a key issue in her campaign – her support of in vitro fertilization.
"As a veteran, educator, and parent by the miracle of IVF, Tim Walz understands the stakes of this election. He is more than ready to serve as Vice President, work hard to safeguard our democracy, protect reproductive rights, and ensure access to affordable healthcare. I look forward to supporting the entire Democratic ticket."
Local Republicans, meanwhile, were unimpressed by Walz.
“The choice of a very liberal running mate shows Harris and the DNC have abandoned the blue-collar-working Democrats,” said Glenn Geissinger, chair of the Northampton County Republican Committee. “While Shapiro would have brought more of a possible contest to Pennsylvania, I am comfortable that the margin in Pennsylvania for our great Republican candidates is secure.”
Shapiro was among a handful of top contenders for the vice presidential spot who were interviewed by Harris over the weekend.
Since he was mentioned as a possible running mate, Shapiro was dogged by negative headlines that include his support of school vouchers and of Israel in its war against Hamas.
Harris announced her decision to pick Walz Tuesday morning. She and Walz appeared at a rally at Temple University in Philadelphia Tuesday night. Shapiro was there as well, speaking before Harris took the stage.
Shapiro released a statement on X Tuesday morning, saying he was grateful for being considered by Harris as her running mate. She has his “enthusiastic support.”
“I know that Governor Tim Walz is an exceptionally strong addition to the ticket who will help Kamala move our country forward. … Over the next 90 days, I look forward to traveling all across the Commonwealth to unite Pennsylvanians behind Kamala Harris' campaign to defeat Donald Trump, become the 47th President of the United States, and build a better future for our country.”
The Pennsylvania effect
Talk of Shapiro as a potential vice presidential candidate came as he enjoys high approval ratings in Pennsylvania, with 52% saying he was doing an excellent or good job, according to an April poll by Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Opinion Research.
Muhlenberg College’s December 2023 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey showed Shapiro holding an 11-point lead (48% to 37%) over former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, in a hypothetical matchup.
A July 17-18 poll by the Democratic PAC Clean and Prosperous showed Shapiro four points ahead of Trump, 47% to 43%, according to the website FiveThirtyEight.
Vice presidential candidates generally have little influence over voters’ choices.
But in Pennsylvania, Shapiro could have made a difference in what is expected to be a close election in the state, said Republican Charlie Dent, a former Lehigh Valley congressman.
A successful strategy in Pennsylvania, which tipped the election to President Biden four years ago, is winning key areas. Biden won by only 80,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast statewide. The 2024 election is shaping up to be another extremely close race in the state.
“Looking at this from a ruthlessly political perspective, Shapiro made the most sense,” Dent said, noting Shapiro’s electoral success in Philadelphia, its surrounding counties and the Lehigh Valley. That’s especially true in Northampton County, which Trump won in 2016 but narrowly lost to Biden in 2020.
“Northampton County is the ultimate swing county in the state and in the country,” Dent said. “So who helps more? It just struck me that Shapiro was the smart, obvious choice.”
Berwood Yost, director of the Center of Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall in Lancaster, agreed.
“I think the first thing to point out is that Pennsylvania would be in play regardless of VP choice. … That said, I also believe that Shapiro has a specific brand that's recognizable to the state's voters and that would have helped Harris in the state. Adding Walz to the ticket does nothing to attract state voters to the ticket who wouldn't already be considering Harris.”
Borick said Walz was the “ultimate choice” due to his ability to communicate Harris’ core message, including why Trump is a threat. Walz was the first to call Trump “weird,” a label that has become a campaign rallying cry.
Borick said he believes Walz will connect to voters in Pennsylvania.
“Walz has an ability to win over progressives with some of his policy positions while his identity, style and affect allow him to reach more centrist parts of the electorate in Pennsylvania and beyond,” he said in an email.
Dent also noted that Shapiro, who is Jewish, could have helped shore up support among Jewish voters.
Republican reaction
Joe Vichot, chair of the Lehigh County Republican Committee, said Walz, who has supported “every leftist agenda item from open borders with government benefits for illegal immigrants to severe restrictions on energy,” appeases the extremist wing of the Democratic Party.
“Once the Democrat elites realized they lost this radical bloc under President Biden, they knew they had no choice but to remove him and replace him with Harris, a solid supporter of the extreme left,” he said. “The Harris/Walz ticket may be good for a far-left socialist who wants power to control the masses but it is dangerous to the everyday American who wants to be empowered by our faith and constitutional rights and not controlled by the state.”
Dean Browning, a veteran political figure in Lehigh County and former congressional candidate, thought Shapiro would have been a drag on the campaign because he is not a progressive.
“The fact that Gov. Shapiro was not selected confirms that Vice President Harris is going all in to appeal to the far-left base in the Democrat Party which has no room for anyone that is pro-Israel, pro-school choice and pro-energy independence.”
Democratic reaction
“We have the good fortune to have a deep bench of candidates of choices,” said Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee and a delegate to the Democratic National Convention.
McFarland, a teacher, said she likes that Walz is a former teacher as well as a former congressman, hunter and a “down-to-earth, small-town Midwestern guy.”
She likes that he has made calling Trump and Republicans “weird” and members of the “he-man women haters club.”
“He has 25 years in the National Guard, and attacks with a ‘twinkle in his eye,’ ” she said.
She said Shapiro’s role in the presidential election is far from over.
“I am confident that Shapiro will deliver PA and am excited for the Harris-Walz ticket. It is a strong ticket,” she said in an email.
Aidan Levinson, a DNC delegate and a Penn State law school student from Zionsville, said he was excited by the choice of Walz.
“Gov. Walz is a champion on the issues that matter to everyday Americans and he will be a strong partner in President Harris' administration. … Any one of the vice president's choices in this process would have bolstered efforts in this election. Every one of them brought something to the table. Every one of them weakens the Trump-Vance's ticket in the swing states.”