Wild ahead of Mackenzie in the 7th in new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll

Democratic incumbent Susan Wild holds a modest lead over her Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th Congressional District race, a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll released today shows.

Wild, who is seeking her fourth term, is ahead 51% to 45% over Mackenzie, a state representative in the 187th House District making his first bid to unseat her. 

Five percent of those surveyed said they still weren’t sure who would be getting their vote while 1% said neither candidate would.  

The same poll found Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris ahead 50% to 47% over former President Donald Trump, her Republican challenger in the presidential race, among 7th Congressional District voters. Two percent were unsure and 2% said they wouldn’t vote for either one. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr., a Democrat, holds a 51% to 45% lead over his Republican challenger Dave McCormick among 7th Congressional District voters. Four percent of voters were unsure while 1% said they wouldn’t support either candidate. 

The 7th covers all of Northampton, Lehigh and Carbon counties and in Monroe County, Eldred and Polk townships and about half of Ross Township.

The poll randomly surveyed 459 likely voters on landlines and cell phones between Sept. 30 and Oct. 3. 

The breakdown was 42% Democrat, 43% Republican, 14% independent and 1% other party. Ninety-one percent said they were definitely going to vote while 9% said they were likely to vote.  

The sample’s margin of error for the surveys has a +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. 

“I think the poll results show a very competitive race,” said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

Borick said Wild is polling right around where her final numbers have been in the last two races.  In 2020, she defeated Republican Lisa Scheller 51.9% to 48.1%.

In 2022, she faced Scheller again, winning 51% to 49%. Muhlenberg/Morning Call polling that year showed Wild and Scheller in a dead heat.

He said Mackenzie is still less known and likely has more potential to gather support in the home stretch. 

“I think a big factor will be Mackenzie's ability to cut through to voters in a very crowded electoral landscape when he is likely to be outspent in the home stretch,” he said. “I wouldn't be surprised if the race tightens up as election day approaches and that the final margin between Wild and Mackenzie is quite close.”

The poll found Wild’s lead in the poll is fueled by support from voters with four-year college degrees – 62% to Mackenzie’s 37%.

Conversely, Mackenzie had broader support among voters without college degrees – 51% to Wild’s 43%. 

The poll found the economy, including inflation, stands out as the most important issue with 29% of voters identifying it as such.  

Immigration, abortion/reproductive rights and democracy/democratic norms each were identified by 7% as being important.

Window into the race
The poll gives a window into a race that is considered crucial to the control of the House of Representatives where Republicans now hold 220 seats versus the Democrat’s 212. There are also three vacancies. 

In the 7th, Democrats with 228,802 voters as of Oct. 7 have a slight advantage over the Republicans, who count 202,961 among their ranks.  

Also in the mix are 85,158 independents and 21,001 voters belonging to third parties. 

Other findings
The Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll also surveyed voters on other issues and found:

Abortion: 73% said abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 17% said it should be illegal in most or all cases. 

Voting: 29% cited voter fraud as the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe election. Suppression of voting ranked second at 24%. Third was foreign interference at 16%. 

Gov. Josh Shapiro: 55% approved of the Democrat’s job performance, 24% disapproved while 21% had no opinion.