Year in review: Democrats saw red as Republicans won big in Pennsylvania, Lehigh Valley
Northampton County, it turned out, did not determine the winner of the presidential election in Pennsylvania nor the nation.
The county, its importance featured in a dozen national media reports in the months leading up to the Nov. 5 election, was not the tipping point many political pundits thought it could be.
Yes, Northampton County, which went for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, did flip back to Trump in 2024.
However, Trump, the Republican nominee, won two other Pennsylvania counties he lost in 2020 (Erie and Bucks), which contributed to him capturing the state and its 19 Electoral College votes. He also won the other Blue Wall states (Michigan and Wisconsin, which he lost in 2020) in winning the presidency over Democrat Kamala Harris.
Trump rebuilds Democrats' 'blue wall' states with red bricks. Especially Pennsylvania
2024 saw key victories by Republicans in the Lehigh Valley and Pennsylvania, aided partly by the GOP further closing the gap in Democrats’ edge in voter registration.
In the Lehigh Valley, Republican Ryan Mackenzie, a 12-year state representative from Lehigh County, defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild for the 7th Congressional District seat in the U.S. House.
Another Democratic U.S. House incumbent to the north, Matt Cartwright, lost his bid for a seventh term to Republican Rob Bresnahan in the 8th District.
GOP victories in those two congressional races – incumbents won reelection in the other state congressional contests – changed the partisan makeup of Pennsylvania’s U.S. House delegation from 9-8 Democratic to 10-7 Republican.
Statewide, Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, who had served 18 years, lost to David McCormick, CEO of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund. Casey, who lost by 15,000 votes, conceded about two weeks after the election.
Republicans won three statewide offices in Pennsylvania – attorney general, treasurer and auditor general, the latter two by reelection.
That followed the national narrative where Republicans captured the White House and the Senate (53-47) and maintained a slim lead in the U.S. House (220-215).
In Harrisburg, the state House remained in Democratic control (102-101), and the Senate in Republican hands (28-22).
Democrats retain 1-seat majority control of Pennsylvania House
The change from Democrat to Republican in key races resulted from voters expressing anger over higher prices for housing, groceries and gasoline and dissatisfaction with an immigration policy that saw border crossings reach a record high last year, political analysts and others told Armchair Lehigh Valley after the Nov. 5 election.
Voter anger drove Republican wins in Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania
Historically, people blame the party in control of the White House, said Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute for Public Opinion, and that’s what happened in 2024.
“You begin and end with the public mood and political cycles,” Borick told Armchair Lehigh Valley. “This year, it totally benefited the Republicans.”
Focus on Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley
Trump held two rallies in the Lehigh Valley, one before the primary in Schnecksville and the other a week before the election at the PPL Center in Allentown.
Harris held a rally at Muhlenberg College in Allentown the day before the election.
In between, first lady Jill Biden, Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz (twice) and his wife Gwen each visited the area, as did Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff; GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance spoke in Berks County. House Speaker Mike Johnson twice came to the Lehigh Valley to support Mackenzie.
Lafayette College in Easton had hoped to host a September debate between the vice presidential candidates, but the debate, sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates, was canceled after the presidential campaigns decided to hold candidate debates on their own.
7th Congressional District
In April, Mackenzie captured nearly 43% of the vote to win a three-way primary for the Republican nomination for the 7th Congressional District, defeating Kevin Dellicker and Maria Montero.
In running against Wild, Mackenzie connected her to the policies of President Biden that saw high inflation, high numbers of border crossings and unrest in the world.
Mackenzie won with 50.5% of the vote (203,688-199,626), building a large advantage in Carbon County and the portion of Monroe County that is in the district, offsetting WIld’s victories in Lehigh and Northampton counties.
Lehigh Valley state House contests
Four Republican incumbents who faced challenges easily won their races.
Gary Day, a Republican who represented the 187th District for 14 years before losing a primary battle in 2022, easily won his election to return to Harrisburg. The path to his election victory opened up when Mackenzie, who defeated him in the 2022 primary, ran for Congress this year. In November, Day defeated Democrat Stefanie Rafes with 55.4% of the vote.
Republicans Joe Emrick (137th), Milou Mackenzie (131st), Ann Flood (138th) and Zach Mako (183rd) also easily defeated their Democratic opponents.
Night of wins for Lehigh Valley Republicans in state House races
The Lehigh Valley state House races were notable in that the Democratic House leadership, donors and political action committees poured nearly $3 million in cash and in-kind services into three campaigns with the goal of widening the party’s one-seat margin in the House.
Meriam Sabih (who lost to Mackenzie), Anna Thomas (who lost to Emrick) and Rafes outspent their opponents in losing causes, according to post-election campaign finance reports. Thomas accounted for most of the spending, with about $2.5 million in expenses and in-kind services. Democrat Joe Lenzi, who ran a low-budget campaign, lost to Mako, as did Democrat Jared Bitting in losing to Flood.
Incumbent Democrats Joshua Siegel (22nd); Mike Schossberg (132nd); Jeanne McNeill (133rd); Peter Schweyer (134th); Steve Samuelson (135th), and Robert Freeman (136th) were unopposed in their House reelection bids. Freeman was the only one of that group who faced a primary opponent, easily defeating Easton City Councilwoman Taiba Sultana in April.
The Lehigh Valley’s three state senators – Democrats Lisa Boscola (18th) and Nick Miller (14th) and Republican Jarrett Coleman (16th) – were not up for reelection.