Final Muhlenberg poll puts Harris ahead of Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight 49% to 47% lead over former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania – a state considered crucial to winning Tuesday’s presidential contest, a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll released today shows.
The Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion polled 460 likely voters in Pennsylvania on landlines and cell phones from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30. It had a margin of error of 6%, meaning the race could go either way and is essentially a tie.
The poll showed “a historically large divide” in voter preference based on educational level. Those with four-year college degrees back Harris 60% to 35% while those without it favor Trump 54% to 42%.
The results also showed a gender and race divide among voters as well. Harris, a Democrat, holds a 53% to 43% lead among women while Trump has a 52% to 43% advantage among men.
Trump, a Republican, holds a 54% to 43% lead among white voters while Harris has 66% to 27% lead among voters of color.
In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. holds a 3 percentage point lead (49% to 46%) over Dave McCormick, his Republican challenger.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey follows its September statewide poll that showed Trump and Harris tied 48-48%.
In its final poll in the 2020 presidential race, the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call showed President Joe Biden with a 5-percentage point lead (49%-44%) over Trump. Biden ended up winning Pennsylvania 50.01% to Trump’s 48.84%.
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey joins a flurry of final polls released this weekend showing a tight race. A New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania voters found Harris and Trump tied 48%-48% in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania, with 19 Electoral College votes up for grabs, is considered critical in reaching the minimum 270 required to win the presidential race.
Christopher Borick, the director of the Institute for Public Opinion, said the two Muhlenberg presidential polls as well as the new New York Times/Siena findings “show a very close race.” He said the differences are modest and can be explained by the sampling errors. Muhlenberg’s is 6% while the New York Times poll is 3.5%.
In other findings, the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll showed:
Just under half (48%) of likely voters in Pennsylvania agree (either “strongly”or “somewhat”) with the statement “I anticipate that acts of political violence will
occur on Election Day.”President Joe Biden had a 42% approval rating while Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has a 59% approval rating.
Voting fraud (28%), voter suppression (20%) and foreign interference in the election (18%) are considered the biggest threats to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024.
About one-third (32%) of Pennsylvania’s likely voters indicate that politics and current events are a “major” source of threat in their lives.
Likely voters remain evenly divided in terms of their party preferences within their congressional districts, with 47% intending to vote for the Republican candidate in the upcoming election and 46% planning to vote for the Democratic nominee in their U.S. House race. (An October Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll showed incumbent Democrat Susan Wild leading her Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th Congressional District race 51% to 45%. The poll had a 6% sampling error.)