Muhlenberg College releases deeper dive into 7th district polling results
Attention politicos:
Muhlenberg College on Thursday released a deeper dive into its September polling results of voters in the 7th Congressional District, showing the Democratic candidates for president, U.S. senator and U.S. representative leading in Lehigh and Northampton counties and their Republican counterparts ahead in Carbon County.
The 7th Congressional District covers all of Northampton, Lehigh and Carbon counties and in Monroe County, Eldred and Polk townships and about half of Ross Township.
The latest voter registration numbers show Democrats outnumber Republicans in the much bigger Lehigh and Northampton counties while Republicans lead Democrats in Carbon. See numbers below.
The Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll randomly surveyed 459 likely 7th district voters in all four counties on landlines and cell phones between Sept. 30 and Oct. 3. Monroe, which has a tiny number of 7th voters, was not factored into the county breakdowns.
In the presidential race, Harris overall was ahead in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll 50% to Trump’s 47% with less than 1% saying they were undecided and 2% saying they would choose neither candidate.
In Lehigh, Harris was ahead 52% to Trump’s 45%. Harris was ahead 51% to Trump’s 47% in Northampton. Trump was ahead 63% to Harris’ 39% in Carbon.
In the 7th district race, the poll found incumbent Democrat Susan Wild, who is seeking her fourth term, ahead district-wide 51% to 45% over Republican Ryan Mackenzie, a state representative in the 187th House District making his first bid to unseat her.
A deeper look at those results showed Wild leading in Lehigh and Northampton by the same margins – 52% to Mackenzie’s 44%.
In Carbon, Mackenzie captured 59% of the vote of those surveyed while Wild tallied 36%. Northampton offered the biggest pickup chance with 4% saying they weren't sure who they were choosing.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey had an overall lead of 51% to David McCormick’s 45%. Some 2% of the voters weren’t sure while another 2% picked neither candidate.
Lehigh voters backed Casey 52% to McCormick’s 44% while in Northampton 51% of the voters picked Casey and 44% McCormick. Northampton offered the biggest pickup opportunities with 4% saying they were undecided.
In Carbon, 55% of the voters picked McCormick while 42% supported Casey.
VOTER REGISTRATION TALLIES*
Carbon County
Democrats: 14,685
Republicans: 23,518
No affiliation: 5,325
Other: 2,054
Total: 45,582Lehigh County
Democrats: 114,299
Republicans: 90,955
No affiliation: 43,363
Other: 7,953
Total: 256,570Northampton County
Democrats: 98,549
Republicans: 86,724
No affiliation: 36,647
Other: 10,530
Total: 232,450
*As of Oct. 21. Source: Pennsylvania Department of StateWild ahead of Mackenzie in the 7th in new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll
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