New Muhlenberg poll: Trump leads Biden in Pennsylvania
The two were tied in a survey released in December.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include how many of the respondents did not vote in the 2020 presidential race or weren’t sure how they voted.
Former President Donald Trump has a three-point lead over President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania voters.
Trump leads Biden 44% to 41% in a head-to-head contest, according to a poll conducted between April 15 and 25 by the The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The two presumptive candidates were statistically tied (Biden 42%,Trump 41%) in a Muhlenberg poll that was released in December.
Trump and Biden are tied (35%-35%) in the poll when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18%) is included as an option. Kennedy has until Aug. 1 to file nomination papers in Pennsylvania.
Biden’s job approval rating is 35%. A slightly smaller number – 33% – said he deserved a second term.
Both Biden and Trump have high unfavorable ratings – 57% for Biden and 55% for Trump.
In other poll findings:
Three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. has a four-point lead (45% to 41%) over Republican challenger David McCormick in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to have a high approval rating (64%).
Voter confidence in the use of mail ballots in Pennsylvania is mixed with about 4 in 10 (43%) reporting that they are either “not too confident” or “not confident at all” with voting by mail.
Confidence in mail ballots is highly affected by party registration status with 84% of Democrats confident (either very or somewhat) in this method compared with 28% of their Republican counterparts.
Pennsylvania voters identified voter suppression (32%), voting fraud (25%) and the use of mail ballots (19%) as the biggest threats to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024, with Democrats most concerned about voting suppression and Republicans concerns centered on fraud and mail ballot use.
Of those surveyed, 77% said they were definitely voting on Nov. 5, 20% very likely and 4% not too likely to vote.
When asked how they voted in the candidates’ 2020 matchup, 44% of the respondents said they voted for Biden while 43% cast their ballot for Trump. Four percent said they voted for another candidate. Eight percent did not vote that year and 1% were not sure how they voted.
The poll, which was released on Tuesday, was based on a survey of 417 registered voters between April 15 and 25.
Respondents were interviewed in English on landlines (82) and cell phones (335). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence.
The breakdown of those surveyed was 45% Democrat, 41% Republican, 13% independent and less than 1% other.