New Muhlenberg poll: Trump leads Biden in Pennsylvania
The two were tied in a survey released in December.
Former President Donald Trump has a three-point lead over President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest Muhlenberg College poll of Pennsylvania voters.
Trump leads Biden 44% to 41% in a head-to-head contest, according to a poll conducted between April 15 and 25 by the The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
The two presumptive candidates were statistically tied (Biden 42%,Trump 41%) in a Muhlenberg poll that was released in December.
Trump and Biden are tied (35%-35%) in the poll when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (18%) is included as an option. Kennedy has until Aug. 1 to file nomination papers in Pennsylvania.
Biden’s job approval rating is 35%. A slightly smaller number – 33% – said he deserved a second term.
Both Biden and Trump have high unfavorable ratings – 57% for Biden and 55% for Trump.
In other poll findings:
Three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. has a four-point lead (45% to 41%) over Republican challenger David McCormick in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro continues to have a high approval rating (64%).
Voter confidence in the use of mail ballots in Pennsylvania is mixed with about 4 in 10 (43%) reporting that they are either “not too confident” or “not confident at all” with voting by mail.
Confidence in mail ballots is highly affected by party registration status with 84% of Democrats confident (either very or somewhat) in this method compared with 28% of their Republican counterparts.
Pennsylvania voters identified voter suppression (32%), voting fraud (25%) and the use of mail ballots (19%) as the biggest threats to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024, with Democrats most concerned about voting suppression and Republicans concerns centered on fraud and mail ballot use.
Of those surveyed, 77% said they were definitely voting on Nov. 5, 20% very likely and 4% not too likely to vote.
When asked how they voted in the candidates’ 2020 matchup, 44% of the respondents said they voted for Biden while 43% cast their ballot for Trump. Four percent said they voted for another candidate. Eight percent did not vote that year and 1% were not sure how they voted.
The poll, which was released on Tuesday, was based on a survey of 417 registered voters between April 15 and 25.
Respondents were interviewed in English on landlines (82) and cell phones (335). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence.
The breakdown of those surveyed was 45% Democrat, 41% Republican, 13% independent and less than 1% other.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include how many of the respondents did not vote in the 2020 presidential race or weren’t sure how they voted.