New poll shows Harris with slight lead over Trump in Pennsylvania and Northampton County
Harris also leads in another swing county, Erie
Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania and in two of the state’s swing counties - Northampton and Erie, according to three new USA Today/Suffolk University polls.
USA Today reported the results of the polls Monday evening.
The statewide poll, conducted after the Sept. 10 debate between the two candidates, showed Harris, the Democratic nominee, with a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, the Republican candidate, 49-46%.
Harris has a 5 percentage point lead in Northampton County (50%-45%) and a 4 percentage point lead in Erie County (48%-44%).
The two Pennsylvania counties are considered key to winning the state’s 19 Electoral College votes. In the past three presidential elections, the candidate who won both countries also won the state: President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012, Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden over Trump in 2020.
Pennsylvania was the state that gave Biden enough Electoral College votes to put him in the White House.
The results of the three polls, conducted from Wednesday to Sunday, are within the margin of error. In the statewide poll, Suffolk University interviewed 500 likely voters. The poll had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. In the county polls, 300 likely voters in each county were contacted. The polls have a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points.
Other findings from the statewide poll:
Harris leads female voters, 56%-39% and independent voters, 43%-38%.
Trump leads male voters, 53%-41%.
49% have a favorable opinion of Harris while 47% have an unfavorable opinion.
43% have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 54% have an unfavorable opinion.
Two recent statewide surveys – taken last month before the debate – showed Harris also with 3 percentage point leads over Trump: 46%-43%, according to a poll by Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research, and 50%-47%, according to a poll by Quinnipiac University.
Nationally, the political data site 538 has Harris leading Trump, 48.1%-45.3%, in its average of current polls.
Pennsylvania by the numbers (percentage and vote totals)
2020
Statewide
Biden: 50.01% / 3,458,229
Trump: 48.84% / 3,377,674
Northampton County
Biden: 49.78% / 85,0870
Trump: 49.05% - 83,854
Erie County
Biden: 49.81% / 68,286
Trump: 48.78% / 66,8692016
Statewide
Trump: 48.58% / 2,970,733
Clinton: 47.85% / 2,926,441
Northampton County
Trump: 49.98% / 71,736
Clinton: 46.18% / 66,272
Erie County
Clinton: 46.00% / 58,112
Trump: 48.57% / 60,0692012
Statewide
Obama: 52.08% / 2,990,274
Romney: 46.68% / 2,680,434
Northampton County
Obama: 51.71% / 67,606
Romney: 47% / 61,446
Erie County
Obama: 57.36% / 68,036
Romney: 41.33% / 49,025Source: Pennsylvania Department of State