New polls: Harris takes the lead over Trump in Pennsylvania
Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey has sizable edge in U.S. Senate matchup with Republican David McCormick.
Two new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by three percentage points in the Nov. 5 presidential election in Pennsylvania, a key swing state with 19 electoral votes up for grabs.
Harris leads Trump 46% to 43% in Pennsylvania – with anti-Trumpism and women’s rights cited as top reasons for support of the Democratic nominee, according to a poll released Thursday by Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research.
In a head-to-head match, Harris also had a 3 percentage-point edge – 50% to 47%, according to a poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.
The polls mark a dramatic reversal from April when a Muhlenberg College survey showed Trump leading President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the race on July 21, by 3 percentage points – 44% to 41%.
In another key Pennsylvania race, for U.S. senator, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey holds a sizable lead of at least 8 percentage points over his Republican challenger David McCormick, the two polls found.
The two polls join a growing list of surveys showing Harris ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania, including one by Susquehanna Polling that found Harris with a 4 percentage point lead.
F&M surveyed 920 registered voters between July 31 and Aug. 11. They included 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans, and 131 Independents. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Some 97% said they were certain or likely to vote in November.
The breakdown of support for other presidential candidates in the F&M poll was We The People Party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. (6%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (1%), Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (1%) and someone else or don’t know (3%).
In choosing Harris, 18% of the voters listed anti-Trumpism as a reason for their support. Women’s rights was a close second with 17%. Other reasons included character (15%), partisanship (13%) and democracy (13%).
Top reasons cited for support of Trump were his stands on economic policy (29%), immigration (20%) and partisanship (19%).
“More voters believe Vice President Harris has better judgment, is more trustworthy, and is closer to their views on values issues than Mr. Trump, while more voters believe Mr. Trump is better able to handle the economy,” the poll said.
In the Quinnipiac University poll, 1,738 likely voters in Pennsylvania were surveyed Aug. 8-12 with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
It showed Harris leading Trump 48% to 45% in a five-way match when Kennedy, Stein and Oliver are factored in.
In a head-to-head match, Harris also had a 3 percentage-point edge – 50% to 47%, Quinnipiac found.
In the Quinnipiac poll, top issues listed by Republicans were the economy (50%) and immigration (20%). No other issue reached double digits.
Among Democrats, the top issues were preserving democracy in the United States (42%), abortion (16%) and the economy (13%).
Among independents, top issues cited were the economy (33%), preserving democracy (23%) and immigration (10%).
U.S. Senate race
Casey leads McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, by 12 percentage points — 48% to 36% — in a head-to-head matchup for U.S. Senate, the F&M poll found.
The spread in the Quinnipiac poll shows Casey with a slightly smaller 8 percentage point margin – 52% to 44%.
The F&M poll found voters who support Casey most often mention partisanship (31%), honesty (10%), women’s rights (10%), his experience (7%), and his residency in the state (7%) as the reasons they are voting for him. McCormick’s residency has been questioned by Democrats. McCormick grew up in Pennsylvania and owns residential property in the state. Democrats claim he actually resides in Connecticut where his children have gone to school. McCormick says he lives in Pittsburgh.
McCormick’s supporters mention partisanship (37%), economic policy (18%), honesty (9%), and immigration (6%) as the reasons they support him, the F&M poll found.
The F&M poll also looked at several other issues:
Economy
The poll found concern about the economy (31%), including unemployment and higher gas and utility prices, continuing as the most often mentioned problem facing the state.
Half (47%) of respondents said they are “worse off” than a year ago, which is similar to how respondents felt much of the past several years.
One in five (20%) registered voters expects they will be “worse off” financially a year from now, which is less than the one in three (35%) who said so in October 2023 and is lower than at any time since March 2021.
Pennsylvania voters are more pessimistic than optimistic about conditions in the state with about half (47%) reporting the state is “off on the wrong track,” but two in five (43%) believing things are “headed in the right direction” – which is the highest proportion since October 2020.
Shapiro, cell phones, marriage, open primaries and hunting
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s job approval ratings remain high with more than one in two (52%) registered voters believing he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as governor. He has the highest approval rating for a governor at this point in a first term since Gov. Ridge.
More than four in five (84%) registered voters believe that schools should be allowed to limit students’ access to cell phones during the school day.
Three in four (77%) voters favor open primary elections that allow registered independent voters to participate in the primary election of their choice. Nearly a third (31%) of voters said that allowing independents to vote in open primaries would make them likely to change their party registration.
The state House of Representatives passed a bill to revise Pennsylvania law to define marriage as a civil contract between two individuals. It would replace existing language that defines marriage as a civil contract between a man and a woman. Three in five (59%) voters favor redefining the legal definition of marriage, although more Democrats (86%) and independents (59%) than Republicans (31%) support this proposal.
More registered voters support (49%) than oppose (34%) allowing hunting to take place on Sundays during hunting season, although there is a sizable group of people (16%) who are unsure about whether Sunday hunting should be allowed. More Republicans (59%) and independents (50%) than Democrats (40%) support Sunday hunting.