New poll: Wild-Scheller in dead heat weeks before election
Inflation, abortion top issues in Muhlenberg College/Morning Call survey
A new Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll shows incumbent Democrat Susan Wild locked in a statistical dead heat – 47%-46% – with Republican Lisa Scheller in the 7th Congressional District race – a matchup viewed as critical for both parties in the Nov. 8 election.
“The poll results seem to align with the general expectations of this race; that it's very competitive and both Wild and Scheller have reasonable paths to victory,“ said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg Institute of Public Opinion and designer of the survey in conjunction with Morning Call staff.
The poll also found that inflation and abortion to be the top issues among those polled – with 34% of voters identifying inflation as the top issue and 28% selecting abortion.
Among 7th voters who identified inflation as their top issue in the 2022 midterms, Scheller holds a 76%-18% lead over Wild.
It’s the opposite for abortion with Wild leading Scheller 87%-11%.
The results show why inflation and abortion have been key issues among both candidates.
Wild, who is pro-choice, has been hitting Scheller for being open to a federal ban on all abortions except to protect the health and life of the mother and in cases of rape and incest.
Scheller, who is vastly outspending Wild on advertising, has repeatedly blamed Wild and her allegiance to the policies of President Joe Biden for the high inflation rate.
The poll also shows why the candidates raised a combined $2.5 million in the latest campaign finance reporting period – the largest among all congressional races in Pennsylvania, according to calculations by Politics PA.
The poll, conducted between Oct. 12 and 14, surveyed 404 likely voters in the 7th. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (118) and cell phones (286). The margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence.
The poll asked voters in the 7th about the U.S. Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, showing Fetterman with 50% to Oz’s 42%. In the race for governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro is leading Republican Doug Mastriano 52 to 36%.
“It's interesting to see Scheller out performing the statewide GOP nominees of Oz and Mastriano,” Borick said. “You can see why Wild is increasingly trying to tie Scheller to Mastriano.”
The poll also found a gender divide with men preferring Scheller by a 55%-37% margin. Among women, Wild leads by a margin of 58%-37%.
Among voters with bachelor's degrees, Wild leads 54%-38%, while among voters without a degree Scheller leads 54%-41%.
The poll results further demonstrate the impact that mandated redistricting is having on the 7th.
Under the old map, Wild, who is seeking her third term, beat Scheller in 2020 with 51.9% of the vote.
The reconfigured district still includes all of Lehigh and Northampton counties, but most of the Democratic strongholds in Monroe County were removed and replaced with conservative Carbon County.
Earlier this year, FiveThirtyEight, a website that analyzes political data, moved the 7th from even in 2020 to leaning slightly Republican (Republican +4 advantage) for 2022. FiveThirtyEight still considers the district highly competitive.